Re: Apple's longevity

CobraBoy (
Tue, 21 Jan 1997 13:13:04 -0800

>Alright, let's start taking bets. Tim, what is a Apple's currnet numbers and
>growth (people and revenue).


>Dan says everyone gone in 24 months.
>Tim says $6 billion (is that above or below current?)

Currently $12 billion.

>Y'know, with OpenStep on NT, you could both be right. :-)
>My bet is that in one year they'll be down a few points of market share, due
>to the uncertainty. What happens after that depends on whether they hire
>Rohit and I
>to run their marketing for Rahpsody. Granted, I'll let you decide whether
>that will lead to fortune or disaster...
>To me, the more interesting question is -what- copmany will Apple be (Be?)
>in two years:
>- and integrated computer maker
>- an OS company
>- a development environment (like NeXT)
>- a tools and technology copmany (a la Macromedia)

Hardware, and OS. They will be out of the scanner, hard drive, etc. market
because no one buys their stuff anyway. CPU's LaserPrinters OS.

>Will they still C(Claris) sell application software? Will they still
>be considered a close system?

Claris just posted record profits.

>Sorry for the typos (telnet connection). I'm curious what FoRK thinks,
>good or bad.

oh geez... blame it on telnet...

>My guess is that they'll still sell complete hardware solutions for the
>next three years, but wtheir primary product will be an OS environment,
>with OpenStep-compatible layers on Win NT (and Win 98?). I deally, they
>will also become the definitive UNIX API, ironically enough. Ohh,
>and half of new sales will be on Intel CPUs.

Don't count on anything NT. And their wil never be anything Intel.

>Rohit, will the FoRK archive still be here in 2-3 years to test the

FoRK will run until Rohit moves it to a Ms based server. Then it like
everything else Ms makes it will break. ;-)

>Oh, and I will bet that ApppleStep plus Java will create new product
>categories that don't exist under Windows.

As usual. Then Ms will copy it. Their is a considerable argument to be made
that Ms needs Apple to lead the way.



The best example of the stupidity of Political Correctness is *Ebonics* Taking a dialect and calling it a language. <> <>