Apple's longevity

Ernest N. Prabhakar (
Tue, 21 Jan 1997 12:56:47 -0800 (PST)

Alright, let's start taking bets. Tim, what is a Apple's currnet numbers and
growth (people and revenue).

Dan says everyone gone in 24 months.

Tim says $6 billion (is that above or below current?)

Y'know, with OpenStep on NT, you could both be right. :-)

My bet is that in one year they'll be down a few points of market share, due
to the uncertainty. What happens after that depends on whether they hire Rohit and I
to run their marketing for Rahpsody. Granted, I'll let you decide whether
that will lead to fortune or disaster...

To me, the more interesting question is -what- copmany will Apple be (Be?)
in two years:
- and integrated computer maker
- an OS company
- a development environment (like NeXT)
- a tools and technology copmany (a la Macromedia)

Will they still C(Claris) sell application software? Will they still
be considered a close system?

Sorry for the typos (telnet connection). I'm curious what FoRK thinks,
good or bad.

My guess is that they'll still sell complete hardware solutions for the
next three years, but wtheir primary product will be an OS environment,
with OpenStep-compatible layers on Win NT (and Win 98?). I deally, they
will also become the definitive UNIX API, ironically enough. Ohh,
and half of new sales will be on Intel CPUs.

Rohit, will the FoRK archive still be here in 2-3 years to test the

Oh, and I will bet that ApppleStep plus Java will create new product
categories that don't exist under Windows.

(but if I knew what they were, I'd have invented them already:-()