Re: Job Stability, long haul ahead

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From: Eugene Leitl (
Date: Tue Mar 28 2000 - 01:09:11 PST

Dave Long writes:

> In the passing lane? It's been over a century since John Henry was a
> little baby, and machines haven't made much progress.
> Forget shoeing horses; we can try a much simpler task: fix a flat.
> Partial credit for being able to at least swap out for a spare.

You've heard about the driverless car driving across U.S, have you? Or
the robot playing pingpong?

You're describing an advanced robotics application. This is currently
bottlenecked by processing speed and our inability to design complex
software/circuitry. Thanks to Moore integration density will continue
unabated until at least 2012 (and after that, if nanotechnology is
ready to jump into the gap), and sofware can be grown GP-style,
supplying constraints to the fitness function.

Progress seems glacial (many would even deny there is one). Due to
nature of above boundary condition progress will happen in an
avalanche-like fashion, see hallmarks of Singularity.

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