From: Linda (joelinda1@home.com)
Date: Sat Sep 23 2000 - 05:40:57 PDT
Jeff Bone wrote:
> This is true in a generalized case, but --- and pardon my technical
> analysis newbie-ism, I've only been to one Omega World conference (but I
> did see Charlie Wright's seminar ;-) --- it seems to me that, on a tactical
> level, CMGI has been doing nothing but testing a hard bottom for the last
> couple of months, sans a few small spikes. Watch me say that and it shoot
> down into the 20s next week, god forbid, there goes my whole wad. ;-)
Agreed, CMGI does look like it's floor is in the low 30's. As you might
know, Adam R. and I trained under a professional trader so our technical
analysis is slanted towards Wyckoff/Sperandeo charting methods (basic
suppy/demand theory, nothing fancy.) From this standpoint, CMGI has at
least broken its downward trend. Start of an upward trend technically
doesn't occur until CMGI exceeds 50 on good volume. That is what most
professional traders are looking for. The longer it sits in its present
trading range (between low 30's and 50), the more likely that move
upwards will be sustainable.
> The analysts have been totally wacked on CMGI and similar stocks, agreed.
> I just can't seem to draw rational correlations between most generalized
> market behavior and CMGI's, or even CMGI's own behavior and that of the
> analysts. We've been pressing the 52 EMVA for weeks, haven't broken it
> yet, and analysts are cautious. What gives? Surely it's not
> sustainability concerns e.g. ICGE.
Eh, don't listen to the analysts! What they say and do are often
quite the opposite. The point of my last post was that
the whole Internet incubator/VC sub-sector is out of favor. Without
rotation of institutional money into this sector, most of the component
stocks won't move much with the Market. CMGI used to command a
premium for being the leader of the bunch. Hopefully, with all that
restructuring, those analysts haven't been thoroughly confused enough
to give up on this stock. It will probably just take some time and
execution on CMGI's part to get this stock moving again. DW is
smart to delay the AltaVista IPO 'till the market for Internet stocks
is warmer. A poor reception could really hurt CMGI's stock. The
miserable performance of Divine interVentures is an example of IPO'ing
at the wrong time.
.
> Yeah, I keep looking, and the bid/ask remains depressing.
Eventually, they'll see CMGI as a great bottom-fishing candidate.
If we get a decent move in Nasdaq, there will be rotation of
institutional money out of the hot stocks into beaten down sectors.
Heck, maybe even KIDE will move... ;)
Linda
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