Robin Hanson on economic growth in exponential modes

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From: Eirikur Hallgrimsson (
Date: Fri Mar 24 2000 - 18:57:51 PST

"In summary, if one takes the model of economic growth as a series
of exponential growth modes seriously, and if new transitions
will be distributed similarly to old ones, then it seems hard to
escape the conclusion that the world economy will likely see a very
dramatic change within the next century, with a new doubling time of
between two years and two weeks. "

The diagrams are a lot easier going than the text:

He was writing in '98.

His proposal of going back to look at what parts of the economy were
growing at what would become the new (industrial revolution) rate is
a pretty interesting one.

All in all, this has something to say to the New Economy. It
predicts that there will be one and that its growth rate will be
exponentially different from the old economy.


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