From: Gregory Alan Bolcer (gbolcer@endtech.com)
Date: Fri Feb 04 2000 - 07:40:07 PST
Besides, Steven Harmon thinks you can corner the whole "Web network universe"
for less than the cost of Oracle. Issuing $128B worth of stock is easy. About
1/3 of the way through, you just announce what you are doing and it funds
itself ala CMGI's b2b fund. In the end, there's only going to be one
end user/b2c company. AOL has the potential to exploit their users to
make them spend money through e-commerce, but Amazon has no bones about it--it's
what they were founded on.
Greg
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: NetStock! by Steve Harmon 2000.02.04 Digital Rivers, SearchEngines?
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2000 23:48:46 -0800
From: Steve Harmon <steve@e-harmon.com>
To: Netstock-Report <Netstock-Report@lr2.listserve.com>
NetStock!
By Steve Harmon
chairman & CEO
e-harmon.com, Inc.
the Internet Investment Provider
_________________________________________
2000.02.04:
Digital Rivers & The Flow Of Commerce
And You Thought They Were Just Search Engines
_________________________________________
For less than the cost of one Oracle (ORCL) you could acquire the entire Web
network universe. Price? $128 billion. Cheap to own the galactic eyeball
aggregation. Someday the world may see that each of these is a platform for
commerce but more scaleable than a software house.
Yahoo has those believers but I think the channel in general holds intrinsic
worth outside of one brand.
Let's look at the numbers crunched:
Web Networks: Ebb & Flow
Stock 52 Week 52 Week Market Revenue
Company Ticker Price High Low Cap. Run Rate
2/2/00 (millions) (millions)
Yahoo YHOO $328.00 $500.13 $110.00 $86,329.60 $620.31
Excite@Home ATHM $38.00 $99.00 $33.13 $14,451.40 $450.25
Lycos LCOS $72.31 $93.63 $28.55 $7,346.95 $224.13
CNET CNET $48.25 $79.88 $21.38 $3,546.38 $113.64
NBCi NBCi $91.38 $106.13 $30.00 $4,742.36 $62.71
Looksmart LOOK $34.25 $45.88 $15.00 $2,928.38 $53.12
Go2Net GNET $75.56 $111.75 $19.50 $2,289.56 $39.13
Goto.com GOTO $71.00 $114.50 $20.00 $3,230.50 $33.71
About BOUT $70.06 $100.00 $19.75 $1,170.05 $31.54
Askjeeves ASKJ $93.63 $190.50 $22.13 $2,509.15 $27.61
AVG. $92.24 $144.14 $31.94 $12,854.43 $ 165.62
TOTAL $922.44 $1,441.38 $319.42 $128,544.32 $ 1,656.15
© 2000 e-harmon
For now let naysayers say the stocks are frothy, bubblicious. The time value
of commerce may prove otherwise. Once a digital channel opens the type and
breadth of ecommerce service delivered doesn't stop. I think the proper way
to value these is akin to a water system with continual flow.
The Nile, Yangtze, Amazon and Mississippi Rivers all spawned cities and
commerce. These analog "flows" proved valuable. These rivers are as valuable
as the perpetual flow.
Similarly these "digital" flows (Web networks) spawn commerce flow. But
better since the commerce revenue returns to the network.
Prima facie and anecdotal evidence: Yahoo (YHOO) began as two guys, a pizza
and a trailer. Couple of 'cool' links. Today Yahoo Stores sells more
merchandise than many megamalls, entire cities even. How? The digital
channel opened and more and more content and commerce flow followed. More to
come.
While Oracle benefits as a database engine for ecommerce a firm like CNET
(CNET) can continue to add more and more elements to the mix. Digital
expansion is limited only by customer needs and demands. That's how Web
platforms are more valuable to me than a software engine. CNET can use
Oracle, Intel and Microsoft. But CNET owns the relationship with users.
The 10 Web networks traded at an average of $92 per share as of February 2,
or $12.8 billion market cap. Without Yahoo (YHOO) the group was at $66 per
share and $4.7 billion market cap.
Just as NBC, CBS and ABC grew from basic radio networks I believe the Web
networks have the potential to adapt like water to the evolving digital
landscape they enable.
These are ecommerce platforms, the equivalent of owning the shipping lanes
to the digital world.
-----------
For the entrepreneur in you
"Zero Gravity" for sale at Amazon.com, bn.com, borders.com
-----------
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Hummer Winblad Venture Partners is the primary investor in e-harmon.com,
Inc. Other investors include Netscape co-founder and Internet pioneer Marc
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