From: Gregory Alan Bolcer (gbolcer@endtech.com)
Date: Sun Jan 09 2000 - 13:42:45 PST
Harmon, what a doofus. He's basically saying in hindsight, "I
meant to do that" in a Peewee Herman type voice. All I can say is,
"no duh". January's historically a bad month for the stock market,
leading sectors in particular. Rule of thumb is 50% over a 30-day
moving average results in a correction; companies dump their holdings
in January in big blocks. January through April will be huge moves to
the upside and downside; April through September will be huge upside.
Ain't gonna crash this year.
Greg
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: NetStock! by Steve Harmon 2000.01.07 Predicted Net Stock PullbackIs Here
Date: Fri, 7 Jan 2000 01:40:58 -0800
From: Steve Harmon <steve@e-harmon.com>
To: Netstock-Report <Netstock-Report@lr2.listserve.com>
netstock! by steve harmon
ceo of e-harmon.com
'the source for internet investing'
__________
Note, January 7, 2000: we are republishing this analysis since although it
was off by a week in timing, it predicted a pullback in the Internet sector
before the end of 1999. The correction began a few days after, January 5, as
Internet stocks and tech stocks in general were hit hard following frothy
runs. The trends almost always seem the same, and with seemingly every
Internet stock peaking in December on investor enthusiasm it caused me
concern.
Each week on CNBC for the past 6 weeks I have warned of the froth of the
overall Internet sector. It's still frothy as a group.
Reasons? the same ones mentioned December 1, 1999 in this report. Read on:
____________________________
Date:1999.12.01 Correction Direction?
________________
A couple of things seem to be aligning to perhaps trigger a 10% to 25%
pullback in the Internet stock sector before year end. We issued a similar
warning this past March just before the April pullback. Surprising coming
from long-term investors (we don't short).
Why could a correction happen?
1) Huge run ups sectorwide, an 'all ships rising with the tide' move that
has indiscriminately raised expectations too high we believe. Ships should
rise but not life rafts. Example: Yes, I am a believer in Akamai (AKAM) the
company but not AKAM the instant gorilla (market cap seems way ahead of
itself). Ditto for DSL stocks and B2B stocks of all flavors. The market was
there in April and it appears could be there again. Then, as now, we issued
a warning beforehand.
2) The piling in of attention-deficit disorder caffeine cowboys into thin
floats, looking for a quick return, squeezing themselves. This is the modern
equivalent of a throng of hippies piling their way into a 1967 VW Bug after
too much Hendrix.
3) Economic growth outpacing Alan Greenspan's abacus (it only counts so
high)
4) Chicken Little and the Y2K chicken soup for the soul being served up and
the fear that a Y2K event could trigger a tech-stock backlash.
5) Too many weak IPOs diluting the Internet
6) The hype coming from more than a few companies regarding what they
represent makes Zapata look like its fax-it-in bid for Excite last year was
conservative.
On the plus side, ponder that we believe this short-term correction (if it
occurs) doesn't represent the underlying value of the Internet. The
intrinsic value grows as a primary driver of value and not a result of a
window on Wall Street.
The fundamental value of the Internet for long-term investors such as
ourselves comes from a new observation: the Internet as utility and
everything that implies.
Utility in commerce, content, communications.
Corrections will come and go, utility builds on itself.
_____
about us:
e-harmon.com, Inc.
the internet investment provider
Hummer Winblad Venture Partners is the primary investor in e-harmon.com,
Inc. Other investors include Netscape co-founder and Internet pioneer Marc
Andreessen, GeoCities founder David Bohnett, Quote.com (now part of Lycos)
founder Chris Cooper, Go2Net founder and chairman Russ Horowitz, XOOM
founder and NBC Internet CEO Chris Kitze, MP3.com founder and CEO Michael
Robertson,
On24 CEO Sharat Sharon, Infosel En Linea CEO Arturo Galvan.
inquiries: info@e-harmon.com
or see http://www.e-harmon.com
(c) 2000 e-harmon.com, Inc.
the internet investment provider
-
investors and entrepreneurs see
www.e-harmon.com
________________________
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