Re: Earthlink statistics.

David Long (dxlong@aol.net)
Thu, 12 Feb 1998 15:00:30 -0500


>Today I had the pleasure of sitting in on the talk, "A Highly Scalable
>Electronic Mail Service Using Open Systems", by David Beckmeyer, Vice
>President of Tim Byars' favorite ISP, Earthlink Networks.

D'ohhh! Would it have been worth the Irvine<->Pasadena commute?

> - Earthlink founder sees Earthlink as direct competitor to AOL

Well, then hopefully we can compare #'s. (warning: CSRV shows us
how much a lasting impact a lead in sub. base and a positive cash
flow can have in this business)

> - Number of Earthlink subscribers, early 1996: 20,000
> Number of Earthlink subscribers, early 1997: 170,000
> Number of Earthlink subscribers, early 1998: 425,000
> Growth rate: Net +10,000/week

I couldn't find this on www.aol.com, so I picked it up from Keyword: IR:

|QUARTER ENDING SUBSCRIBERS INCREASE STOCK PRICE*
|September 30, 1997 9,457,000 821,000 $82.50
|June 30, 1997 8,636,000 600,000 $55.63
|March 31, 1997 8,036,000 236,000 $42.50
|December 31, 1996 7,800,000 1,200,000 $33.13
|September 30, 1996 6,600,000 400,000 $35.63
|June 30, 1996 6,200,000 700,000 $43.75
|March 31, 1996 5,500,000 908,000 $62.75
|December 31, 1995 4,592,000 878,000 $47.38
|September 30, 1995 3,714,000 714,000 $34.38
|June 30, 1995 3,000,000 687,000 $22.00
|March 31, 1995 2,313,000 735,000 $18.56
|December 31, 1994 1,578,000 420,000 $14.00
|September 30, 1994 1,158,000 255,000 $ 8.54
|June 30, 1994 903,000 191,000 $ 7.13
|March 31, 1994 712,000 181,000 $ 9.00
|December 31, 1993 531,000 144,000 $ 7.31
|September 30, 1993 387,000 84,500 $ 7.13
|June 30, 1993 302,500 57,500 $ 4.62
|March 31, 1993 245,000 26,000 $ 3.13
|December 31, 1992 219,000 24,800 $ 3.66
|September 30, 1992 194,200 12,600 $ 1.87
|June 30, 1992 181,600 -- $ 1.69
|*Stock price is split-adjusted. Stock splits occurred on 11/28/95, 4/27/95, and 11/23/94.

If we just look at the sub. rate, 10K/week doesn't look that
good against 60K/week. However, it does look like ELNK is
doing better (sub. acceleration wise) than AOL (nee AMER)
circa 1993. I have no idea how home computer ownership differs
between now and '93; that may put things in a different light.

> - Incoming mail volume: 17 messages/second (peak: 30 msgs/sec)
> This comes to 1.5 million msgs/day
> Authenticated at 250 xactions/second

Interesting: I'd expect email use to scale at more than O(n), but
we only run 22 million msgs/day (from Keyword: Steve Case)

-Dave

Cool! Check out all the transparent computers -- if they don't radiate
in the visible, they're unlikely to emit much TEMPEST signal, either :-)
<http://www.earthlink.net/tour/DataCenterFAQS.html>