From: Gregory Alan Bolcer (gbolcer@endtech.com)
Date: Fri Dec 22 2000 - 10:47:32 PST
I don't see what you're saying as differing. The value
of some of these communities had to do with the ultimate eventual goal
that these sites may be able to suck some loyalty out of them
making their sites sticky so that they can hook the visitors
almightly e-commerce spending habits.
Reading that back, it almost sounds pornographic. The user
values were based on the fact that in the future they might
be able to sell them something eventually. Another
way to compute Napster's value is $1M/month in t-shirt
revenues, 50-times revenue valuation is about $600M. Wow!
Napster is overvalued by $200M.
Greg
Tony Berkman wrote:
>
> I beg to differ. I could give you a laundry list of Web sites with strong
> communities whose value per user is fast approaching $0.00.
> Off the top of my head I think of eGreetings, The Globe, Ivillage, and
> Women.com, but there are many many many more. Napster's recent valuation
> had nothing to do with building the community - it had to do with the idea
> that people will ultimately pay for the right to download music and Napster
> has market share for distribution right now, plain and simple. The old
> metrics of value per user are dead and gone. Revenue rules.
>
> - tb
>
-- Gregory Alan Bolcer | gbolcer@endtech.com | work: 949.833.2800 Chief Technology Officer | http://www.endtech.com | cell: 714.928.5476 Endeavors Technology, Inc. | efax: 603.994.0516 | wap: 949.278.2805
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