[FoRK] Disruptive innovation

Stephen Williams sdw at lig.net
Thu Dec 29 11:44:11 PST 2011


On 12/29/11 11:29 AM, Adam L Beberg wrote:
> Jeff Bone wrote on 12/29/2011 8:21 AM:
>> Amazon Flow,  Walgreen's iPhone "scan to refill" app, and similar product-recognizing cloud services --- where "the cloud" has 
>> millions of eyes all over the place and can recognize and recall millions of products, and eventually people, locations, 
>> situations, etc. --- are game-changers.
>
> I deposited a check with my E*Trade iPhone app last week. That was the only reason I've needed a physical bank in the last 10 
> years, and the only reason we kept other accounts at Wells/BoA. Every other function, from student loans to credit cards to home 
> loans, is already an online form. In fact if you go into a branch, they often pointed you to a phone in the corner.
>
> Banks are done. With 1-4 on every street corner in America, that should be fairly disruptive. Banks with branches won't be able to 
> compete. BLS says that's about 1.8M jobs... I give them about 2 years.

And this just after crazy bank branch expansion.  (Is there any doubt about how much money banks were siphoning from flow?)

http://therealdeal.com/newyork/articles/bank-branch-bust-opens-doors-to-retailers
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/04/jpmorgan-chase-california-bank-of-america.html

The paradox was noted here in 2009:
http://www.banktech.com/blog/archives/2009/04/the_branch_expa.html

Except for the actual branch manager, bankers earn very little typically.

>
> It's getting to be that other than food/supplies from the local grocery store, there is no reason to shop in the physical world 
> anymore. Unless I really feel like getting ripped off royally by crazy markups. That's another 4.5M or so people running retail 
> cash registers.

Shop, yes, buy, no.

>
> But this is what technology does, ho hum, more of the same. I've always destroyed far more jobs with automation then I have 
> created by hiring people - who then also destroyed more jobs.
>

And it is what it should do.  We should be cheerful about it.  We do need to specifically work on providing people with attractive 
opportunities rather than assuming that something good will always fill the vacuum.  Clearly there are many areas and groups of 
people where that doesn't happen reliably.  Chronic gigantic waste due to a poverty of imagination and shirking of responsibility by 
those who can organize, facilitate, and fund.

sdw



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