[FoRK] Disruptive innovation

Stephen Williams sdw at lig.net
Thu Dec 29 10:35:01 PST 2011


On Thu Dec 29 08:21:46 2011, Jeff Bone wrote:
>
>
> Okay, so my spidey-sense is tingling again, it's like a case of hives, figured I'd come out of seclusion long enough to get 
> this prognostication on record.
>
> As with Napster early on, I think there's something very significant going on that most folks haven't caught onto yet, but 
> that has the potential to disrupt just about everything.
>
> Years ago I said "put cameras in cell phones and Big Shit happens." Or something like that.
>
> It's happening. The other, synergistic / enabling key technologies are ubiquitous connectivity, access to large-scale compute 
> cycles ("the cloud") and significant advances in computer vision in conjunction with big data.

Welcome Mr. Bone. We've been expecting you.

We've been dabbling in machine vision, AR, mobile, social, etc. And we're not alone:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2076742/Google-unveil-hi-tech-Google-glasses-superimpose-information-world.html

There are all kinds of exciting breakthroughs lately, including formerly toy technology that is suddenly good enough to wow the 
average consumer. (Siri et al, Kinnect, etc.)

We're getting revolutions in apps, interfaces, services, commerce, communication, device features and availability, etc. We've 
broken the expensive consumer devices logjam.

This should be fun.

> Amazon Flow, Walgreen's iPhone "scan to refill" app, and similar product-recognizing cloud services --- where "the cloud" has 
> millions of eyes all over the place and can recognize and recall millions of products, and eventually people, locations, 
> situations, etc. --- are game-changers.
>
> Brick-and-mortar is in trouble. Showroom model, anyone? The potential impact of this kind of point-and-shoot exo-brain tied 
> into the consumer ecosystem is HUGE. As in, tough for even me to get my head around.

Non-specialty showrooms are only going to continue to exist where they can find an angle that gives them some offline revenue.  
Or they find a way to get some online revenue.
There are a lot of possibilities.  Among them, 0-day shipping: Find and buy on Amazon, pick up at the store or have it couriered 
on the 4 o'clock product shuttle.  Service, education, and returns are another possibility.  And used reselling, probably 
through Amazon et al so people know they're getting a fair deal.  pawn.amazon.com.

We're going to have an evolution of affiliated and unaffiliated brick-and-mortars.  Best Buy level dualism is one avenue, but 
that's tough to pull off if you're not at scale.

>
> My $0.02. Amazon Flow. Jeff Bob sez check it out.
>
>
> jb
>

sdw



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