[FoRK] Economics, models, predictions

[Jeff Bone]

A simple observation...

Without describing what I do in detail, let me just say that it's a  
lot more complicated and apparently a whole lot less effective than  
certain other apparently less technical and far more qualitative  
"models."  Most of the hedge fund 50 that made $billions last year  
were probably operating from a kind of intuition coupled with varying  
degrees of fundamental analysis, yielding qualitative predictions as  
simple as "the dollar's got to keep falling" or "those mortgage-backed  
securities --- and the stocks of those that hold them --- are  
overpriced."  :-/

Continuing a long personal tradition of making everything a lot harder  
than it needs to be,

;-)

jb