[FoRK] How far will the dollar fall? (was: Demonizing the hedge funds...)

[Jeff Bone]

On Apr 19, 2008, at 10:42 AM, Russell Turpin wrote:
>
>
> Jeff Bone:
>> Most "professional economists" don't even have a particularly good
>> track record explaining or describing the recent past, witness the
>> typical announcement of recession "oh yeah, we're in one, and have
>> been for two quarters." :-/ ;-)
>
> We have been in a recession, if GDP is normalized to population  
> growth.
> Which it should be.
>
> Don't get me going on CPI statistics, and how inflation "ex food and
> energy" is pretty much like health "ex infection and cancer."

Precisely.

BTW, one reason you don't hear "professional economists" talk much  
about e.g. the impact of political leadership on the economy is that  
none of their models comprehend behavioral factors like that  
particularly well if at all.  And even if they did, measuring  
quantities like that would be fiendishly difficult.  So the fact that  
they aren't "blaming Bush" is only because in doing so they'd have to  
toss out or fight for years to amend their precious models.  Says more  
about the practice of economics than it does about any impact Bush may  
or may not have had.

Also, I have mostly come around to JAR's point of view over the last  
few years --- I don't really think of Krugman as (much of) an  
economist, he's more of a generic pundit.

jb