[FoRK] bridging the collapse gap
Stephen D. Williams
<sdw at lig.net> on
Tue Apr 3 06:15:49 PDT 2007
Eugen Leitl wrote:
> On Mon, Apr 02, 2007 at 08:13:51PM -0400, Stephen D. Williams wrote:
>> is that A) people stop wanting to go to / move to the US and B) US
>> citizens start trying to live somewhere else in large percentages.
> That's not a definition, that's a diagnostic.
>> All of this is moot to me as I expect a few mini-singularity-like events
>> to shake everything up. Real AI/robotics is one obvious development.
> Fabbing automation is definitely great, but if the wealth doesn't percolate
> through the society as a whole the tensions will only rise.
> I don't see much of real AI in robotics, something good enough that
> you could have general reprogrammable fabbing cells powerful enough
> to assist in own replication with a high enough closure.
No, not yet. I said I expect us to have it, not that we do. I expect a
lot of progress in the next 5 years, and I'm maneuvering to participate
if I can find the right opportunity (academic or work).
>> We only have stupid-simple stuff so far; we already know how to do quite
> Which is why the real unemployment rate is pretty damn high.
The possibilities of quantum leaps forward make me wonder how to best
handle unemployment. When you have a true labor surplus, where
everything that people need or want done is able to be done with 10% of
the population, for instance, what does a capitalist democracy do to
cope? Eventually, service, entertainment, education, science, art, and
other jobs that we might not imagine will probably expand to fill the
gap, but sudden leaps might be hard to digest.
I suppose at that point, we employ everyone to build the spaceport,
Starfleet Academy, and spaceships. ;-)
An obvious first step is democratizing and enriching humanity in the
rest of the planet, but that shouldn't take long if large percentages of
the population join the foreign service. ;-)
> Things will always be surprising.
Exactly, only more so. ;-)
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