[FoRK] hmm...

Albert S. <albert.scherbinsky at rogers.com> on Thu Mar 1 19:07:04 PST 2007

Market corrections are healthy. World markets have
been going almost straight up for 4 years. A little
fear and respect for rational pricing is a good thing.

The sell off was triggered by the Chinese government
expressing concern and (possible actions) because
their equity markets were getting over heated. The
Chinese economy hasn't slowed much(yet). Their stock
prices were just climbing too fast.

The only thing to fear is inflation, and that isn't
looking too bad(yet). Possible near term sources of
inflation are energy, food, and relatively tight labor
markets. Inflation would cause central banks to
tighten monetary policy further possibly leading to a
dramatic economic slowing world wide. But again, this
doesn't look to be happening(yet). Many economists
were predicting that we'd be in recession by now. They
were wrong. 2.2% GDP ain't no recession. You may have
heard lots of chatter about a soft landing. We aren't
even headed for the runway. It's a low altitude fly
by.

Regards,
Albert



--- Eugen Leitl <eugen at leitl.org> wrote:

> On Wed, Feb 28, 2007 at 04:21:26PM -0500, Jeffrey
> Winter wrote:
> > 
> > Just pick up a couple of pounds of 
> > rhodium and sit tight:
> > 
> > http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/rh1825lnb.gif
> 
> It's not obvious this is real value, and will
> continue
> to go up. Look what happened to palladium. But as a
> small
> fraction of a diverse basket, why not.
> 
> Also, rhodium has mostly industrial use (rare), and
> bound to
> industry cycles. Ag/Au/Pt is probably easier to sell
> as
> bullion, or as pieces hacked thereof (rubles were
> originally
> pieces hacked off by axes from round silver bars on
> demand).
> 
> I'm a bit worried of what will happen to the
> information economy
> if the physical economy goes down the drain.
> Advertising, online
> shops, generally consumers with broadband _and_ some
> disposable
> income can suddenly become rather rare. On the other
> hand, if there's
> no work to do, people might spend a lot of time in
> virtual world,
> running away from ugly realities.
> 
> I see Brussee hasn't yet commented (he's usually
> quick to):
>
http://www.amazon.com/Second-Great-Depression-Warren-Brussee/dp/1591136881/sr=8-1/qid=1172736619/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/102-3039182-8184968?ie=UTF8&s=books
> 
> I'm absolutely an economic idiot, but his analysis,
> if the numbers
> are actually for real, looks correct (not at all
> sure about his TIPS
> tip, it's all greek to me, and others disagree,
> citing underreporting
> the inflation in CPI as a possible reason).
> 
> Anyone read "Conquer the Crash"? Worth buying?
> 



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