[FoRK] [TNR] Chicken Little: We'll survive the bird flu

Justin Mason jm
Thu Oct 6 10:33:43 PDT 2005


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Damien Morton writes:
> > How have you "bet" the other way? Are you stockpiling tamiflu and
> > relenza? Respiratory masks? Enough supplies to stay indoors for a
> > few weeks?
> 
> tamiflu, check.
> relenza, check.
> masks, check.

I'm also "betting" the other way.  Haven't actually put my money where my
mouth is just yet, though.

I've been looking up online places to buy, and suggestions as to what to
buy -- I was planning to go for both Relenza and Tamiflu, as well.  Any
tips there?

> Apparently the thing to watch for is clusters popping up around asia, 
> i.e. whole villages becoming infected. That will tell you thats its 
> started being passed human to human. Thats the danger, not the virus as 
> it is now, but the virus as it could become.

FWIW, there's multiple steps there.  It can evolve to pass human-to-human,
but at a low level of efficiency; this is stage 4 of a pandemic:

  'Phase 4: Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but
  spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well
  adapted to humans.'

Some people are saying that this may have already happened in isolated
cases in Indonesia, but the authorities aren't concurring yet.

- --j.
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