The Last Laugh

James Rogers jamesr at best.com
Sun Apr 20 19:38:44 PDT 2003


On 4/20/03 5:45 PM, "Jeff Bone" <jbone at deepfile.com> wrote:
>> It's amazing how many libertarians have became Democrats lately. :-).
> 
> Isn't it?  Maybe moderate or non-Ditto "Republicans" should take note
> and ponder...


The problem, at least as I see it, with the Democrats are that their
candidates are increasingly distasteful to a large segment of the population
and they no longer even attempt to pander to some of their traditional
constituencies (e.g. "blue dog" Democrats).  I know a lot of people who were
weak Democrats that voted for Clinton in '92 but who have shown a decreasing
ability to stomach the latest group of faces that are running the Democrat
party.  What is happening is that these people are either not voting or they
are voting Republican, not because they identify in any strong way with the
Republicans, but because they don't identify with the perceived face of the
Democrat party.

The Democrats will likely lose in 2004 because they've become at odds with a
significant percentage of their constituency.  They've essentially
sacrificed their voters in large sections of traditionally Democrat flyover
country to shore up their constituency in the coastal urban areas.  I'm
guessing this amounts to a wash in Congress and a net loss in terms of the
Presidency.

At the same time, the Republicans are clearly pandering very strongly to
traditionally Democrat flyover country, and it looks to me like it is having
an effect (e.g. rather significant party membership defections in the
political class in the flyover country Democratic "strongholds").  If the
Republicans can keep the Religious Right faction at bay and if control of
the Democrat party continues to slip away from the grasp of the saner
portion, I don't see how the Democrats can do anything but miserable in the
coming election.

The only potential problem for the Republicans is a quasi-libertarian
spoiler, but I don't see any way in hell the Democrats are going to provide
that, so it would have to be an independent (slim chance) and an independent
would probably hurt the Democrats just as much.  For obvious reasons, the
more libertarian and "Reagan Republican" factions aren't entirely thrilled
with Bush administration.  Unless the current administration throws them a
big bone, they could be tempted to defect if a tasty alternative was
offered.


Cheers,

-James Rogers
 jamesr at best.com



More information about the FoRK mailing list