The Victor's Rights, Right or Wrong

JS Kelly jskelly at jskelly.com
Sat Apr 19 13:09:10 PDT 2003



john, have you ever physically actually visited any ex-communist
countries? methinks you are having trouble remembering the main difference
between capitalism and comminusm (or the main differences, i should say). 

two come to mind, but there are plenty more:

in capitalism, man exploits man. in communism, it is the other way around.

in communism, they pretend to pay us and we pretend to work. in
capitalism, it is the other way around..

the noblest thing the US could do right now is back out of iraq quietly
and shut the door softly on its way out so as not to wake up any more
sleeping ghosts in the region. iraq has a very secular and highly educated
population. i do think that they can figure the rest of the formula for
democracy out on their own.

as an american and US citizen, i have always wanted to travel to the
middle east as a tourist. given our foreign policy, it is something that i
do not feel safe to do. maybe my children's children's children's children
might be able to actually see the egyptian pyramids in person instead of
on our dollar bills. someday. but given our track record as a nation, i
find it highly unlikely.

forget capitalism and communism. i vote for isolationism.

best regards,
-jsk

On Fri, 18 Apr 2003, johnhall wrote:

> 
> > From: fork-bounces at xent.com [mailto:fork-bounces at xent.com] On Behalf
> Of
> > Russell Turpin
> > 
> > >And if you get the same despotism 20 years from now you still have
> given
> > >them 20 years
> > >to try for something else.
> > 
> > This is where I think you are wrong. What comes
> > next, and what comes after that in reaction,
> > will carry the US imprint and signature. If it
> > turns into something as bad or worse than the
> > Ba'ath regime, not only will it be bad on that
> > account, but it will tarnish the US and limit
> > our foreign policy in the area. I have enough
> > belief in the importance of our nation and our
> > ability to do good on the foreign stage to
> > think that that is another increment of
> > misfortune, not only for us, but for the
> > Iraqis. One can always make blundering look
> > good by posing a bad result of the status quo
> > as the only alternative. But that's not the
> > only alternative. And whether our current
> > action turns out to be a blunder or not
> > depends very much on what comes next, not
> > simply on our military victory. Our failure
> > to maintain order in Iraq, and our attempt to
> > install an unwelcome, outside resistance
> > leader, do not bode well for the how we wage
> > the peace.
> 
> Saddam was the only alternative, and a non-contained Saddam at that.
> 
> Crushing Saddam sends a shock wave through the Middle East, making our
> enemies nervous and those who hope for liberal reform in their countries
> hopeful.
> 
> Yes, we may fail to get the Iraq of our dreams.  But a defanged regime
> that doesn't harbor terrorists is itself a big win.  It may in fact be
> impossible to reform the Middle East, but it is worth a shot.
> 
> Yes, if we don't get the Iraq of our dreams then our hopes of doing so
> elsewhere will evaporate.  But if we can't do it in Iraq, those other
> hopes were always mirages anyway.
> 
> 
>  
> > >In the case of the Shah [measured by US interests] it certainly looks
> > >(today) like the results with the Shah were better than the probably
> ones
> > >without him --> even factoring in the current Mullocracy.
> > 
> > Iran is a casebook study of how support for a
> > bad regime empowers opposition based on
> > political philosophies contrary to the west,
> > and leads to a government that is inimical to
> > the US for decades after. Had we not installed
> > the Shah, Iran very likely would be both more
> > liberal and friendlier to the US than it is.
> > Instead, it is the third listing in Bush's
> > axis of evil. AND WE MADE IT THAT WAY. I
> > think that's a very poor trade for the business
> > advantages we gained under the Shah.
> 
> Had we not installed the Shah, we would have faced a pro-Russian
> communist government in Iran in the middle of the cold war.  The result
> of that little counter-factual could have led to WWIII.  The United
> States would have fought a nuclear war to prevent Russian domination of
> the Middle East.
> 
> We had 20 years of respite during the most dangerous years of the cold
> war because of the shah.  Now we have spent 20 years on the outs, half
> of which covered a period where the SU was no more.  Further, the
> population of Iran is now pro-American and the mullahs are barely
> hanging on.  [Part of the reason for this is, in fact, the losses
> suffered in the Iran/Iraq war.]
> 
> I think the Shah was a bargain.  5 years from now Iran will probably be
> off that list after the mullahs fall.  Our presence in Iraq might help
> that along.
> 
> > John answers:
> > >You believe things would have been better if Iran had conquered Iraq?
> > 
> > That's an example of trying to severe past
> > foreign policy from its consequence. Our own
> > blundering gave rise to Iran's mullahcracy,
> 
> It wasn't blundering, we had bigger fish to fry.
> 
> > pushing us into the choice between letting it
> > conquer Iraq, or supporting a madman like
> > Saddam Hussein. 
> 
> Actually I think our biggest interest was in letting them shoot at each
> other as long as possible.
> 
> > Viewed in isolation, that
> > choice gives excuse to our support for Saddam.
> > Viewed in the context of a situation that the
> > US created, it's blowback, pure and simple.
> > BECAUSE of our support for the Shah, we later
> > had to let the mullahs conquer Iraq or support
> > Saddam. Because we supported Saddam, he later
> > was able to conquer Kuwait, leading to Gulf
> > War I, sanctions, etc. Are you accounting all
> > of this as consequence of support for the
> > Shah? I didn't think so. Neither would the
> > rightwingers of your ilk who supported the
> > Shah and US policy in the 70s. 
> 
> History has to be made as it happens, not in 20/20 hindsight.  I'd
> recommend the US do it all over again (installing the Shah) though it
> might be nice if we didn't have a Jimmy Carter to pull the rug out from
> under him in '79.  BUT BUT BUT that also helped get us Reagan, and the
> Mullahs were a small price to pay for Reagan.
> 
> We tilted to Saddam in the Iraq/Iran war, but we were hardly his
> supporters like France and Russia were.  Brazil sold more weapons to
> Saddam than the US did.
> 
> Saddam attacked Iran because he thought he could take a piece while they
> were distracted.  If Iran had been stable he wouldn't have attacked (and
> lost).  Instead he could have attacked Kuwait in 1981 not 1991.  If he
> had done that, he would have succeeded and an effort to drive him out
> would never have materialized.  Eating Kuwait in 1981 would have let him
> eat the Saudi oil fields a few years later.  Are you accounting for all
> of this when you don't think supporting the Shah was a good idea?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 



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