The Last Laugh

Jeff Bone jbone at deepfile.com
Sat Apr 19 01:45:24 PDT 2003


If I had not voted for Harry Browne in 2000, I would've voted for Bush. 
  I would've been making a BAD choice in that case, but luckily I don't 
have to live with making that mistake.  Point being, I don't subscribe 
to the false "conservative / liberal" dichotomy --- I identify 
"conservative" on the economic axis, anyway --- but these 
self-proclaimed "conservatives" are becoming annoying to the point of 
major distraction.

I find myself constantly annoyed lately with the cocky, breathless 
enthusiasm and continuous patting-self-on-back one sees among these 
people these days.  These people couldn't be more pleased with 
themselves;  from the moment their unelected "president" was given the 
White House by conservative cronies on the Supreme Court to their 
"massive" win of House and Senate (not nearly the mandate they claim) 
to the current situation vis-a-vis Iraq, these people have gotten 
louder, more outrageous, and more assured of their own "victory" in 
this false "culture war."  They've made mountains out of molehills, 
seeing righteous victory everywhere.

The last laugh will belong to the rest of us, the non-extremists, the 
moderate middle and others.  Here's why...

Bush WILL lose in 2004.  It's unavoidable.  Believing otherwise is 
nothing but pure delusion.  In order to rationally believe that he'll 
carry the day in 2004, you've got to believe some significant 
combination of the following:

(1)  There are people who voted for *Gore* last time that will vote 
Bush in 2004
(2)  There are people who voted for *Nader* last time that will vote 
Bush in 2004
(3)  There are others who voted 3rd party last time that will vote Bush 
in 2004
(4)  There are people who did not vote last time that will vote Bush in 
2004
(5)  That the sum-total of these people tips the balance, while
(6)  Balancing out the people who didn't vote last time that will vote 
against Bush in 2004
(7)  Minimal defections
(8)  No "right" spoiler, significant "left" spoiler
(9)  Significant economic improvement (not until capital starts 
flowing, and Bush is future-unfriendly)

I just don't see it.

The "bandwagon" some people seem to be feeling / talking about is an 
artifact created by an increasingly uncritical and conservative media, 
coupled with an increasingly loud and obnoxious conservative core 
that's always been there, but --- point --- DID NOT carry the vote last 
time.  Any legitimate effect that exists --- and IMHO it's much less 
than you'd imagine from the reportage --- is just the typical wartime 
and post-war popularity boost, and it's NEVER sustainable.  It's all 
noise.  The numbers just don't add up.  Apathy (both inherent and 
because of two incredibly weak candidates) plus the Nader "spoiler" 
effect last time cost the Democrats a clear and decisive victory (as 
opposed to the minor and overruled victory they actually attained.)  
The anti-Bush camp will rally this time around rather than risking 
another 4 years of disastrously bad management and economic recession / 
depression.

I bet (small bet) you can't find a SINGLE person that you actually know 
who both voted against Bush last time but will vote for him in 2004.  
OTOH, I bet you can find a lot of Greens, a lot of apathetic 
non-voters, a lot of e.g. Libertarians (or whatever, like me!) who are 
so disillusioned with Bush that they'll camp Democrat next time around. 
  Hell, I know self-proclaimed "Republicans" who are so disillusioned 
(even terrified) of Bush that they'll defect next time around.

So the numbers just don't add up.  Couple that with the increasing 
likelihood that strong economic recovery will be delayed beyond the 
election ("Bush effect", retardation of trade and available capital due 
to "Scorched Earth" future- and global stability-unfriendly policies.)  
Add in all the people out of work who blame delayed recovery on Bush, 
and this is a rerun of 1992.  It'll be a landslide victory for the 
Dems, capturing both the White House and probably the Senate --- though 
the House is a tough call.  Personally, I hope they don't get a hat 
trick --- I like a little friction.

Bottom line, though, the MAJORITY of Americans, the anti-Bush crowd, 
will have the last laugh this time around.  And then all the smug 
motherfuckers in the conservative extremist camp will, perhaps, be 
given pause for a bit.  Not likely for long --- they're lousy losers 
(Clinton 8-year witch hunt) as well as lousy winners.  So they'll 
whine.  But maybe first they'll shut the fuck up for a little while, 
anyway.

We'll see.  If I'm wrong, I'll be checking out.

jb







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