[MORK] Message for JB

Jeff Bone jbone at deepfile.com
Wed Apr 16 23:23:29 PDT 2003


On Wednesday, Apr 16, 2003, at 20:28 US/Central, Bill Stoddard wrote:

> My guess: chicks vote more than guys and they will be voting for the 
> fellows.

Yes, but...  they (a) disagree more both on target gender and target, 
so as long as their block is split the guys pull forward, and (b) the 
chicks (the ones over the age of, oh, 16 anyway) are much less likely 
to vote *many* times.  One thing not in favor of my scenario is that 
the geek crowd's somewhat torn between hottie-support and 
geek-identification-support, i.e. Carmen and Clay.  And the geeks 
control the autodialers, which (recall last season) can really push 
otherwise "unworthy" candidates a long way.  Josh probably can't win 
it, 'cuz "those people" (i.e., the country crowd ;-) (a) have their own 
show, Nashville Star, and (b) probably can't stand R&B enough to get 
into AI. :-)

If it were purely talent, Roooben would win it.  No doubt.  The 
meritocracy order AFAICT / IMHO is from highest to lowest, is:  
Roooben, Kimberley Locke / Clay, Josh / Trenyce, Carmen.

SPOILER BELOW, HOW TO PREDICT WITH 100% ACCURACY FROM WEEK TO WEEK



















Here's the spoiler:  last season the vote-offs PRECISELY tracked the 
message board traffic volume the day before the show.  I.e., on Monday, 
look at the message board.  The remaining candidate with the lowest 
message board total (cumulative) at that point is going home.  At that 
point, call your bookie.  ;-)  This was 100% effective last season from 
fairly early on.  'Course this system only lets you peer 1 day into the 
future, but there you have it.  My own list in the previous message 
isn't, obviously, based on this --- rather it's just an attempt to 
guess the size of the various voting blocks as they de-fragment, and 
the impact on vote totals.

$0.02,

jb




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