[SPORK] Deconstructing Iraq: not oil per se... just plain economics.

James Rogers jamesr at best.com
Tue Apr 15 11:35:38 PDT 2003


From: Adam L. Beberg
> 
> The Euro relative to the dollar will very shortly have FAR 
> more users, backed by much more responsible governments. 


The number of currency users is pretty immaterial to the power of a
currency.  Take China, for example.  The economics behind the currency have
much greater weight than the number of users.  The number of users is just a
rough indicator of the size of the economy that is backing a currency.

Currencies need governments to be *economically* responsible, and I'm at a
loss to see how the major Euro countries could be described this way.
Certainly no more economically responsible than the US government, and many
of the Euro governments have a much smaller margin for error.  It will be
hard to push the Euro past the US Dollar without closing the rather large
per capita GDP gap, something that isn't going to happen any time soon.

The US is not super rosy looking right now, but the EU looks even bleaker.


> Also 
> their population isn't all just as far overextended into debt 
> as the US government. 


I'm not sure exactly what this is referring to.  The average EU debt-GDP
ratio appears to be modestly higher than the US, and the major economies in
the EU individually don't look any better than the US.  

There are a few economies that look interesting around the world, but the EU
as a whole isn't one of them (though countries like Ireland catch my eye).

Cheers,

-James Rogers
 jamesr at best.com



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