Finance and Economics after the Dotcom Crash

Marty Halvorson
Thu, 03 Jan 2002 10:10:35 -0700

Tom wrote, "The problem is translating that math to a specific R&D project 
or even to a  small number of them. It can't be done. "

True enough.  Having worked in research, advanced development, and 
development, and having had folks that knew what the rates of return on 
investment were for specific projects, it's possible to identify some 
likely outcomes.

For research, 10 of 100 efforts will produce useful results.
For advanced development of the results from the research groups, 10 of 100 
efforts will produce useful results.
For development of the advanced research results, 10 of 100 efforts will 
produce profitable results.

In other words, profitable product results from about 0.1 % of the 
research, and, product results from about 1 %.  These numbers apply only to 
my experience in the computer manufacturing industry, as I have no idea 
what happens in others.


Marty Halvorson
New Mexico Supreme Court
Administrative Office of the Courts
Judicial Information Division