Risk homeopathy

Dan Kohn (dan@teledesic.com)
Mon, 15 Sep 1997 13:38:06 -0700


Here are some profound thoughts that no one ever seems to understand in
trying to apply economics to cool technology. Risk homeopathy is the
idea that it is very difficult to reduce aggregate risk, because when
you make one thing safer, people tend to take more risks in other areas.

The whole article <http://www.sciam.com/0997issue/0997cyber.html> is
only one page.

- dan

"SMART CARS" WILL BE BONANZA FOR LEGAL PROFESSION
With the advent of "smart" cars traveling "smart" highways -- zipping
along
at 70 miles per hour with only 10 feet between bumpers -- accidents are
bound to happen, says columnist W. Wayt Gibbs. Train and airplane
computer
guidance systems fail all the time, and computer-controlled automobiles
and
roads will be even more at risk -- from weather, stray animals, falling
cargo, and saboteurs, to mention just a few. "They will fail
frequently,
causing dramatic collisions, some lethal. Most people overestimate the
dangers of air travel because every accident makes the nightly news.
Glitches in new technology will get even more intense scrutiny.
Reporters'
first question will be: Who's to blame? Current laws would hold those
who
build the cars and roads liable for damages whenever system failures
cause a
crash, whether they had been negligent or not. In theory, Congress
could
limit their liability, as it did for the airline industry. In practice,
tort reform is a political minefield... Even if smart cars cut traffic
fatalities in half, they will still kill thousands every year. Multiply
the
furor over a few dozen air bag-related deaths, 100-fold, and the public
relations problem is clear." Gibbs says that to make the system
reliable
enough to win public acceptance, the cost would be enormous, pricing the
option out of most consumers' range. "It is the biggest waste of
research
funds I have ever encountered," says a transportation researcher at
Rutgers
University. "It's pie in the sky: as average speeds improve, people
don't
spend less time in the car -- they travel longer distances." (W. Wayt
Gibbs, "Not So Fast," Scientific American Sep 97) http://www.sciam.com