From: Meltsner, Kenneth (Kenneth.Meltsner@ca.com)
Date: Thu Dec 28 2000 - 12:30:18 PST
Gosh! 2 cents per MB vs 0.5 -- the NAS box did throw in an embedded computer, a case, a bit of software, etc. Still, it's likely that 20K$/terabyte will be 10K$ in a few months.
I had an acquaintance once that saved every one of his mail messages. At the time, I thought it was ridiculous that he was keeping over 10 MB worth of email. These days, I think my inbox is > 10 MB.
And I think we're already at the point where you can simply cache (forever) every Web page, every graphic, etc. that you view, if only browsers could index n GB caches.
It might be a good idea to do this at the departmental proxy level, for example. We made this argument as part of a proposal for Web-based engineering databases. It made a lot of sense to keep track of the Web pages that supplied the data for a mechanical component. With a little bit of effort, we figured we could even track down the users of data that was superceded by later data or standards.
Ken
-----Original Message-----
From: Adam Rifkin [mailto:adam@KnowNow.com]
Sent: Thursday, December 28, 2000 1:54 PM
To: FoRK@XeNT.CoM
Subject: RE: IBM 76.8Gb ultra dma/100 hard drive at Fry's for $375...
I wrote:
> I repeat, IBM 76.8Gb ultra dma/100 hard drive at Fry's for $375...
> "home of fast, friendly courteous service! (R)"
> I kid you not. That's a half a cent a Megabyte for storage.
> Not El Cheapo storage but top of the line storage.
Ken wrote:
> I thought the kidding comment was about Fry's "fast, friendly courteous
> service" until I read it a second time.
Actually, I can't believe Fry's changed its slogan to that either.
Rohit pointed it out to me at the bottom of the advertisement.
> I saw a terabyte NAS box for $20K -- a price that blew me away. When
> I was a junior tape carrier and flunkie at LBL in 1978, I believe our
> entire tape library held about a terabyte, kept a couple of operators
> hopping around mounting tapes, etc.
$20K for a Terabyte is still 2 cents a Megabyte. Assume Fry's is using
the IBM drive as a loss leader, selling it at cost at a half cent per
Megabyte. That means the NAS suppliers are charging four times the
wholesale price of storage for their "value add". That can't possibly last.
More importantly, with my measly 6 Gig disk on my laptop I have to keep
rotating through MP3 collections. With a 6 Ter disk on my laptop I'll
be able to keep every song I've ever heard, right? (Of course, at that
point I'll start collecting movies and TV shows, no doubt. Can you
imagine a Napster where we're swapping Seinfeld episodes?)
But this gets to a bigger issue: the world of always-on broadband. In
that world, the only stuff I need locally is my cache (e.g., the stuff
I'm most likely to use next). Having big honking amounts of data that
live "out there" should become dirt-cheap once the costs of hosting and
storage have become completely commoditized to the point where they cost
practically nothing.
Rohit says that someone's going to earn a PhD applying to RAID storage
the Consistent Hash mathematics:
http://theory.lcs.mit.edu/~karger/Papers/Talks/Hash/index.htm
Hey, maybe Caltech will let me come back and finish my degree. :)
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